Analysts and sports pundits make a living off of forecasting
standings and stats and are most of the time laughably incorrect. So, I
figured why not give it a shot myself. How much more wrong or less
credible could I be than those who get paid the big bucks by big media
corporations to spit ball predictions based on past stats and gut
feelings? I guess only time will tell.
Baseball
may be one of the most difficult sports to predict. There are an
almost infinite number of variables that go into the longest sports
season in existence, but that's what arguably makes it the most exciting
to discuss and predict! I will be predicting only the places each team
will come in. I find exact record predictions to be arbitrary. First, I
will cover the eastern divisions. Anyway, here goes nothing:
AL East
1st - Toronto Blue Jays
The
Blue Jays had an in-your-face explosion of a season in 2015 slugging
its way to the ALCS where they ultimately lost to a pesky and almost
inexplicably good Kansas City Royals team. This team will be out to
prove they can finish the job in 2016 especially when they have one the
most outspoken, passionate cores in all of baseball with Jose Bautista
and Josh Donaldson at the helm. Yes, the cliche often states that
defense and pitching wins championships, but if offense is going to win a
title it will be this offense. It's just way too overwhelmingly dynamic
to count them out in any game or any series. They also happen to play
81 games in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. Now,
this team isn't just one dimensional either. Pitching does exist in
Toronto and some of it is pretty good if not really good. Marcus
Stroman heads a rotation that surely does have question marks but also a
decent amount of potential with the likes of Drew Hutchinson and Aaron
Hernandez. The bullpen can definitely be considered a weak spot but 21
year old closer ,Roberto Osuna, has a power pitching caliber live arm
that already made waves last season. Honestly, all the rotation and
bullpen needs to be is mediocre for Toronto to win a lot of games. The
offense will do the rest.
2nd - New York Yankees
Yes,
as a Mets fan it pains me to rank the Yankees this high and in the
playoff discussion but even though father time looms large over this
entire roster, it's still pretty solid and deep. Question marks are
abound and plentiful but so is pure experience and stacked resumes.
Injury concerns will play a huge role in the Yankees' season as just
about every roster spot seems to be prone to it, again mainly due to
age, but if the Yankees can stay predominantly healthy they can come out
towards the top in the crap shoot that the AL East will be this season .
The bullpen is the forte even with Aroldis Chapman's off the field
troubles that may result in suspension. The lineup will need to be
shuffled constantly, but still has some decent pop especially with
Yankee Stadium's band box factors. The defense may also be deceptively
good. Even though most position players aren't as spry as they once
were most have strong defensive histories (Beltran, Teixeira). Starlin
Castro should see a bit of a revival at second where less range is asked
from his bigger build and Didi Gregorious is a better defensive short
shop than Derek Jeter ever was (that should ruffle some feathers). So
yes, this team's success leans on the questionable health and
performance of Teixeira, A-Rod, Beltran, Ellsbury, Sabathia, Tanaka and
so on and so forth, but if even a couple of these guys can put together a
complete season, the Yankees will be in good shape.
3. Baltimore Orioles
The
Orioles are the most interesting team in this division. The offense is
just riddled with power that's not on the same level as the Blue Jays
but still very scary. There aren't many staffs in the division of the
AL that can counter this power, but they can be had. The Rays and
Indians for example could have a strike out field day with this roster
which is concerning, but overall the offense should win this team a lot
of games. Zach Britton is a dominant anchor as the closer for this team
and the defense is more or less solid with the likes of Manny Machado,
J.J. Hardy, and Adam Jones gracing the diamond. The major doubts for
this team lies within the starting rotation as it has for years. This
is not a result of a lack of trying. It just so happens that the
pitching draft picks they invested in didn't pan out as starting
pitchers and have either ended up off the roster or in the bullpen (e.g.
Brian Matusz, Zach Britton). It's a shame the Orioles can't put
together a complete team because now, based on the age and contracts of
players on their roster, their window of opportunity to be legitimate
contenders for a World Series is very quickly coming to a close.
4. Boston Red Sox
Many
people seem to be forcing themselves to believe in these Red Sox for
some reason, but whether you like it or not, this is not the same
caliber team that won 3 World Series in the early 2000's. The Red Sox
culture is egregiously toxic and no not an "idiots" kind of toxic, but
more of a zero chemistry, high tension, low motivation type of toxic.
The tension may be created by the team itself but extends to Red Sox
Nation which is just not having any of it. Sure, they may still be
stuck in the past ruminating about their bearded heroes, but this fan
base does have the right to higher expectation of this franchise. This
franchise has been through quite a renaissance in the last decade and a
half. A step back should not be tolerated, but that seems to be the
current culture in this clubhouse right now. From Hanley Ramirez to
Pablo Sandoval to even guys like Craig Kimbrel and Dustin Pedroia,
there's much to prove. The bright spot on this team is their young
outfield. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, and Rusney Castillo are going
to be good, maybe really good but may still be at least a year away.
The pitching staff is underwhelming with, unproven playoff ace, David
Price at the helm. Let's not forget that Price and David Ortiz (the
face of the franchise by the way) never got along in the past. Ortiz
isn't safe from scrutiny here either as he seems selfishly ensconced in
his upcoming farewell tour. This rosters just screams malcontent and
unlikely to gel together to make a run for the top of this division.
5. Tampa Rays
Many
will disagree about my placement of the Rays in the predictions. The
Rays are the perdurable, lovable underdogs and many predict they will
catch everyone off guard and finish among the top of this division.
Yes, they have proven to have done that in the past, but as each year
passes by, Joe Maddon's fingerprints on the franchise fade a bit more
and whether you agree with me or not, Maddon had a huge role in pushing
this franchise to overachieve in the past. There is definitely some
talent here but I also see through the lovable underdog mantra and what I
see are disappointments and perennial duds. Steven Sousa, Corey
Dickerson, and Hank Conger are all players who are having a real hard
time reaching their potential or just staying on the field or both.
There are also plenty of other players on the roster that emanate
inconsistency or only one dimensional acumen. Outfielders, Kevin
Keirmaier and Desmond Jennings, and closer, Brad Boxberger, all fall
into this category. The pitching staff can be really good depending on
the health and continued rehabilitation of Alex Cobb and Matt Moore
(Cobb will most likely miss the first half of the season recovering from
Tommy John surgery). Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi are above average
starters and well Chris Archer is a real deal ace. With that said, I
don't think that the starting rotation can carry what is a very
unimpressive rest of the roster anywhere towards the top of this
division. Joe Maddon may have been able to prove me wrong in the past,
but that was the past and he now resides in Chicago.
NL East
1st - New York Mets
Yes,
I'm a Mets fan, but most know that predicting them to finish first in
the NL East can be justified. It was also difficult to push that good
ol' Mets fan pessimism aside to predict them in this spot. Plus, for
those of you who are Mets fans and follow them closely know that this
year in the grand scheme of things was labeled years ago as being the
year to win it all. Last year wasn't really even supposed to happen
until this year! The Mets just happened to arrive a bit early. Now,
this is the first time in a long time that the Mets have to live up to
high expectations. It takes special kinds of athletes to overcome that
kind of stress, but the Mets seem to have what it takes. It hardly
needs to be said that the bread and butter of this team is the pitching
staff. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and
down the line, Zach Wheeler will make for one of the most dynamic young
pitching staffs in the league and could blossom into one that sidles up
to any staff all-time. Sure, the favorite in the NL to makes the World
Series in the NL are the Cubs, but short memories seem to forget how
staunchly the Mets staff shut down the Cubs bats in the NLCS. This
staff is now a year more experienced with Harvey another year removed
from surgery. If anything this staff will be stronger than last season
which is pretty scary for any lineup in the league. The bullpen should
also be better with of course arguably one of the best closers in the
game in Jeurys Familia patrolling the mound in the ninth behind a
stronger cast of arms. The lack of left-handed talent was a crutch for
the Mets' pen last year. Well, 2016 will see the return of lefties Josh
Edgin and Jerry Blevins. The Mets also acquired Antonio Bastardo in
the off-season, so left handed help should be boutiful. The bottom line
shows that the Mets are seemingly infinitely deep in capable arms both
in the rotation and in the bullpen. The offense will be more complete
as well having Yoenis Cespedes around for a whole season and the defense
improves with Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker manning the middle
infield. They may not vastly improve the defense, but they should be
much more consistent than having Wilmer Flores at short everyday or the
inconsistent, knuckle-headed Daniel Murphy at second. The biggest
weakness is their depth on the bench which mid-season moves could easily
mend being they have plenty of pitching that could be used as bait.
This team has improved in every possible facet and should contend for a
World Series.
2nd - Washington Nationals
The
Nats are still a dangerous team. but definitely took a step backwards.
The biggest problem in the nation's capital seems to be their youth
movement strategy. They are obviously built to win now, but that notion
seems to be blinding the front office in regards to letting their youth
find their place on the team. Players like Michael Taylor and Trea
Turner can't seem to get their careers off the ground because they are
being squelched by low impact acquisitions to the likes of Daniel Murphy
and Ben Revere. The success of this team will depend on the health of
Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon. If these three
can stay on the field, this team will contend for first place with the
Mets. The brass also needs to realize that Trea Turner is the better
option at shortstop over Danny Espinosa and that Micheal Taylor needs
more playing time over Revere. The starting rotation may not be as
overpowering and deep as the Mets but the depth is there. Max Scherzer
and Stephen Strasburg are legitimate aces. Joe Ross looks as if he can
really impact the rotation. Gio Gonzalez needs to rebound on what was a
pedestrian 2015 season. Beyond that there's Tanner Roark, A.J. Cole,
and Taylor Jordon who are all serviceable starters that could be mixed
and matched to make this a complete rotation. The bullpen depth will be
suspect with the disliked Jonathan Papelbon currently slated to close
out their ballgames although he did finally apologize for choking out
the Nationals pride and joy. Bryce Harper hasn't been mentioned until
now because everyone knows this is his team being arguably the best
hitter in the game. The Nationals needs to rally around him in order to
make a big run in 2016.
3rd - Miami Marlins
The
Marlins at best will reserve the role of giving the top two teams in
this division a hard time from time to time. Giancarlo Stanton and Jose
Fernandez headline what is a very mediocre roster hence why they will
finish third in the NL East. The Marlins cannot be considered for any
kind of contention for a division title or playoff birth until 2017.
Giancarlo will be watched closely as he returns from a hamate bone
injury and Fernandez will be on an innings limit coming off Tommy John
surgery. Those factors alone disallow me to rank them any higher for
2016. The future does look bright for Miami as 2016 should allow young
players including Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna to take another
step towards legitimate impact players The rotation is extremely
suspect and definitely will need some attention in upcoming seasons, but
overall these Marlins are on the right path. Don Mattingly should be a
better fit in Miami than he was in L.A. because he doesn't have as many
high profile personalities to manage which will allow him to really
implement his own culture in the clubhouse. Barry Bonds will also be an interesting personality to watch as he was hire in the off-season as the Marlins hitting coach. The Marlins have a more immediately brighter future than the bottom two teams in this division. However, 2016 will result in
nothing but a transitional season and being the middle of an NL East
sandwich.
4th - Atlanta Braves
This
franchise has been at the top of this division for so long. Seeing and
predicting them to finish towards the bottom of the division irks even a
die-hard Mets fan, but the truth is in the roster. This franchise is
in the middle of what many have coined as "tanking." The Braves of
course will never admit it but the roster shows that they have no intent
on being a contender of any sort this season. The goal is to lose and
lose incessantly in order to gain high end picks in upcoming drafts.
Now, of course it's never easy to lose on purpose, but many of these
players will not be able to compete at a professional level. I give the
Braves the 4th spot here because the Phillies may just be a bit better
at losing on purpose, plus the Braves will put together a few more wins
thanks to a few more bright spots on the roster which include Freddie
Freeman of course as well as Julio Teheran, Ender Inciarte and the
potential of Hector Olivera.
5th - Philadelphia Phillies
The
Phillies have Maikel Franco. That's it! Philadelphia fan have nothing
else to look forward to in 2016. This team is set up to fail and fail
hard. The Phillies will no doubt be one of the worst teams in baseball
if not the worst. Attendance or lack there of may even break records
this season.
I
know what you're thinking...these predictions almost mirror the
standings at the end of the 2015 season with the only contrast being
that the Red Sox and Rays are swapped. Well, that goes to show that not
much has changed since last season in both of these divisions. There
weren't really any earth shattering off-season moves for any of these
teams. The biggest moves were the Mets securing Cespedes, the Red Sox
adding David Price, and the Yankees acquiring Aroldis Chapman. I don't
believe any of these moves will result in any drastic changes to these
divisions. If anything, all of the moves including lower impact ones,
balance each other out.
Resources:
<www.baseball-reference.com>
<www.rotoworld.com>
Image sources:
baseball: <http://static1.squarespace.com/static/54d95da7e4b0661469ecded6/t/54ed010be4b0079be57fba6a/1424818443886/mainpagebg2.jpg>
Jose Bautista: <http://assets2.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/bautista_flip-1040x572.jpg>
Pablo Sandoval belly: <http://p.o0bc.com/rf/image_700w/Boston/2011-2020/2016/02/21/Boston.com/ReceivedContent/Images/davis_st221-8_spts.jpg>
Mets Rotation: <https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVz7oO0WIAA54jg.jpg>
Jose Fernandez: <http://a.fssta.com/content/dam/fsdigital/RSN/Florida/2015/9/12/091215-fsf-mlb-miami-marlins-fernandez-PI.vresize.1200.675.high.70.jpg>
Phillies Misery Index: <http://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/a9/2b/phillies-misery-index-120915-ftrjpg_jyqeaf0rxhx81dv89ijj1vjhp.jpg?t=-1839718351&h=600>
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