Monday, February 29, 2016

AL Central

1st - Kansas City Royals
There is no reason not to believe in these Royals once again.  This team doesn't blow anyone away on paper, but it never has and it's been to back to back World Series winning the last one.  This team lives on the abstract and intangible.  No other team exists in baseball with more chemistry than these Kansas City Royals.  The talent on this roster is more or less the same as the past couple of seasons.  The only factor present that differs from the past is that they are coming off finally winning a title.  The motivation last season came from doubts that they could ever get back to the World Series and finish the job.  Now, where will the motivation come from?  Will there be a hangover?  I don't believe there will be.  The psyche of this team will overcome any hangover effects.  The resigning of the Alex Gordon in itself tells the story of this team.  Most of these players know that they may not be able to keep this special roster together for too many more years.  Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Greg Holland all  have contracts expiring within the next two seasons.  The Royals, being the small market team that they are, will not be able to take on all of their new and most likely more lucrative contracts.  That being said, the Royals will be in it to win it all for the next two seasons and there really isn't much in their way in the Central Division. 

2nd - Cleveland Indians
The Indians are the only team that has the potential to dethrone the Royals in the division.  The pitching staff is deep and growing more dangerous each passing season.  Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar are among the best 1-2-3 punches in baseball and behind them is a decent amount of depth with Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Cody Anderson rounding out the back end of the rotation. Cody Allen is a top of the closer with plenty of depth behind him as well.  It's the offense that's tough to judge in Cleveland.  The offense heavily leans on Michael Brantley's rehabbing shoulder.  Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, among others need to hold the lineup together until Brantley can heal and get back on the field.  Once he's back and healthy the lineup will be more complete and dangerous. This team depends on a lot of things going right in 2016, but if everything does fall into place, they could be one of the best teams in all of major league baseball and especially scary in the post-season with a pitching staff of such high caliber arms.

3rd - Detroit Tigers  
The Tigers will finish third in this division, but the separation will be noticeable here as they will not be close to the two teams above them.  They did make some decent moves in the off-season acquiring Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmerman which will help them avoid the basement.  The offense is the obvious forte here with Miguel Cabrera feeling the healthiest he's been in awhile.  Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler may be on the downside of their careers, but still have a good amount of offense in them left to give.  J.D. Martinez loves hitting in this lineup and should continue to be an impact and Justin Upton should be influenced the same way.  Beyond the the batter's box, this team is pretty abysmal.  Unless Justin Verlander has some magical resurrection, there's no depth beyond Zimmermann who can be a very good number 2 or 3 starter, but is not an ace.  The bullpen is just as horrid.  Bruce Rondon has not lived up to any sort of expectations as a future closer, which has had them scramble.  Francisco Rodriguez at the moment is there only other option, which is nothing to get excited about.  The Tigers are living on a prayer in 2016 and are most likely headed towards years of rebuilding with their big stars battling father time.

4th - Chicago White Sox
The only real assets that the White Sox have going into 2016 are Jose Abreu and Chris Sale.  The remaining roster seems to be littered with players either in the twilight of their career (e.g. Adam LaRoche) or in a under-performing quagmire they can't seem to pull themselves out of (e.g. Mat Latos, Brett Lawrie).  Avisail Garcia, Carlos Rodon, and Tyler Saladino head what is a relatively pedestrian youth movement in south Chicago.  Alright, maybe I'm not being fair to this team.  Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, and closer David Robertson are definitely play makers that will help this team avoid the cellar, but in the end this team will finish towards the bottom of this division.

5th - Minnesota Twins
The Twins finished in second place last season after an incredible start, which surprised everyone in the baseball world.  This team is definitely trending upwards against the Tigers who are trending down, but I believe it will be another year or two before they become legitimate contenders in this division.  Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are at the core of what the Twins' future will look like, but they have a ways to go before they prove themselves.  Nonetheless they will make the offense interesting to watch .  In regards to pitching, there's not much to feel good about.  Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Tommy Milone are all underwhelming and their once highly touted prospect, Kyle Gibson, is already 28 and hasn't tapped any sort of potential.  The bullpen can be decent, but it will not be enough to save the starting rotation.  The Twins' 2015 season surprise finish will be long forgotten when they are struggling to stay out of the basement in 2016.

NL Central

1st - Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are primed for their first World Series win since 1908, and most definitely will be highly competitive for a long time to come. The core of youth on this team is incredible.  Anthony Rizzo was the first of young superstar studs to grace their major league roster back in 2012, coming over from the Padres in a trade that involved Andrew Cashner (He was also involved in a trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego to Boston).  Since then the roster has been reinforced with high caliber young talent left and right most notably last year when Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber made an impact on the big league club.  Addison Russell and Jorge Soler are still trying to find their niche, but when they do they will only solidify what is an all around scary lineup.  The acquisition of Jayson Hayward and resigning of Dexter Fowler give them a load of depth in the outfield.  Hayward will improve their defense exponentially as well.  The batting lineup will strike out a ton but they will also score a ton of runs.  The crutch with this team lies in it's pitching staff.  Jake Arrieta has emerged as one of the most dominant starters in all of baseball but the second and third spots in the pitching staff come with an approaching expiration date.  Jon Lester has quite the impressive resume including many playoff accolades, but his dominant days are trending downwards and John Lackey's career twilight is upon us.  Meanwhile Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks are nothing but a mediocre presence, but then again they are solid arms for being the 4th and 5th starters on a pitching staff.  As with the Blue Jays, this staff just needs to hold its own.  The high powered offense will take care of the rest. 

2nd - St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals can be considered the best managed franchise in baseball or in all of sports for that matter.  Their proficiency in forming well-rounded rosters season to season while being fiscally efficient were unprecedented in the modern era and is more increasingly being emulated by other franchises today. This team is able to balance an assortment of big time talent and smaller pieces to fit together a roster that consistently competes at a high level. Every facet of their roster is headed by a superstar who is then surrounded by complimentary talent.  Adam Wainwright heads a pitching staff that compliments him with younger talents in Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.  Wainwright himself has vowed to return with a vengeance and will be back to his dominant form making this pitching staff all the more dangerous in 2016, even with the loss of Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.  One of the best closers in the game, Trevor Rosenthal, anchors what is a deep bullpen.  There are performance and injury concerns in the bullpen with Jonathan Broxton and Jordan Walden as respective examples but there are some real diamonds in the rough in the back end of that crew which comes in the form of Kevin Siegrist.  Yadier Molina will of course be the conductor of all of these arms as long as he can stay on the field.  Matt Holliday is their horse in the lineup and has been surrounded by complimentary talent that allows for a productive lineup and tight defense. Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuk solidify the outfield nicely.  Matt Carpenter and Jhonny Peralta are their ambassadors in the infield.  This franchise has put together a roster with few holes which should result in another finish atop the division.  They will put a lot of pressure on the Cubs and if the Cubbies make one misstep, the Cards will snatch the division right from under them! 

3rd - Pittsburgh Pirates
The Bucs are on the downswing.  Their window of opportunity is closing and closing fast.  It's a shame they couldn't take advantage of their open window but they did also get incredibly unlucky having to oppose two of the hottest pitchers in the sport in the wild card game the past two years .  The outlook for their 2016 campaign is bleak especially with the Cubs skyrocketing in talent over the past couple of seasons and the Cardinals looking as strong as ever. They still have the capacity to be in the mix in the NL Central, but will ultimately not have enough to get back into a playoff spot.  The offense and defense for that matter is very outfield-heavy.  The infield will not miss Pedro Alvarez defensively, but the lineup will surely miss his power. Jung Ho Kang's health is still in question.  First base is a toss up between Michael Morse and John Jaso and probably someone else when both don't produce enough or stay on the field enough.  The pitching is still their strongest weapon but other than Gerrit Cole, it is waning. Cole will take another step in being one of the best power pitchers in the game, but the starters behind him from Francisco Liriano to Jon Niese to Jeff Locke to Ryan Vogelsong will be satisfactory at best.  Top prospect right Tyler Glasnow could bring some pizzazz to the rotation, but may not be ready to be an impact on the major league club in 2016.  The bullpen will be taxed heavily in 2016, and even though there are decent amount of talented arms at the back end, they will most likely burn out towards the end.  This franchise can trump the Cubbies and Cards, but they need to make a move or two in order to flirt with that fantasy.

4th & 5th - Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds
The heading doesn't necessarily have to be thought of as respectively.  Honestly, it's a waste of time to write a forecast for these two franchises.  The rosters for both of these franchises will look completely different come August.  Both teams will be "tanking" this year.  Both teams are in the middle of rebuilding.  Everyone will be going.  Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, an Devin Mesoraco are a few names for the Reds that still will be dealt.  The Brewers will be pushing Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun on general managers all season long.  Both of these teams will be excruciatingly painful to watch in 2016.
 
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